Climate Change: The "Per Capita" Measure is a Misleading Metric

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" is a phrase often used to describe how statistics can be manipulated to support weak arguments. The portrayal of Canada as a major offender in the climate debate is a prime example of this manipulation.

Setting the Stage: The Reality of Climate Change

The science behind climate change is well-established, and the evidence is all around us. There is a global consensus that effective action needs to be taken to combat climate change. Discussions about fossil fuels inevitably arise, and while there are valid arguments against the sector, there are also undeniable truths that counter these points. In these conversations, Canada often receives an unjust reputation, fueled by climate activists and even our own government.

The Per Capita Emissions Myth

If we want to have a responsible and truthful conversation about climate solutions, we must start with accuracy. One major myth is the use of the "per capita" metric as a true measure of greenhouse gas emissions. For a country like Canada, which has the second-largest land mass in the world but a relatively small population of 40 million, the per capita metric is misleading – and deliberately so.

According to the per capita measurement, Canada appears to have the highest emissions among G7 countries and is one of the top emitters globally. However, this does not reflect the true situation.

Canada's Emissions in Context

Canada contributes only 1.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions. However, because of our small population, our per capita emissions are 20.7 metric tonnes (mt) per year. By contrast, China, with a population of over 1.4 billion, has annual per capita emissions of 8.4 mt, yet it is responsible for 27% of the world's total greenhouse gas emissions. To put this in perspective, China’s emissions are more than fifteen times those of Canada and exceed the combined emissions of the entire developed world. Canada is not the bad guy yet the alarmists who lack a cogent argument will always hit the “yeah but per capita!” button.

The United States is the second-largest emitter, accounting for 13.5% of global emissions, with annual per capita emissions of 14.24 mt. India, with 1.4 billion people, contributes 6.6% of emissions but has an annual per capita rate of just 1.77 mt. Together, these three countries contribute nearly half of the world’s emissions. While their per capita measures are much lower than Canada’s, using per capita as the sole metric makes Canada appear to be the biggest offender, which is entirely misleading.

The Real Picture: Energy Sources and Emission Trends

China remains heavily reliant on coal power, a primary cause of carbon emissions and therefore climate change, and operates over 1,000 coal-fired plants, more than half the world's capacity. Despite pledging to reduce coal usage, China continues to build new coal plants domestically and abroad, adding significant amounts of CO2 to the atmosphere.

In contrast, Canada has been phasing out coal-fired electricity. Ontario stopped using coal for power in 2014, and Alberta has taken similar steps. Other provinces with coal-fired power plants face strict emissions requirements, leading to decommissioning or retrofitting with carbon capture and storage technology. These efforts have reduced Canada’s annual CO2 emissions by 8% from 2019 to 2020, bringing them down to 536 million tonnes.

The Importance of Accurate Metrics

It is inaccurate to label Canada and Canadians as significant contributors to global emissions. We are not. Effective action on climate change requires significant efforts from the top emitters, and Canada is not among them. In fact, our emissions are trending downward.

For an honest discussion about climate change, we must focus on the whole truth, not selective statistics that fit a false narrative. Canada is not a problem country; we are part of the solution.